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MarketVIEW: Tuberculosis vaccines

Updated: November 2014

Mycobacterium tuberculosis (M.tb) currently infects around one-third of the world's population. Although the majority of infections are latent and assymptomatic, between 5-10% of individuals develop active disease which is both contagious and able to cause severe morbidity and death. Most of M.tb infections occur in sub-saharan Africa where co-infection with HIV is a significant contributor to disease burden.

The BCG vaccine has been widely adopted by greater than 100 countries with high coverage to protect against systemic TB in children. However, the vaccine does not prevent or eliminate Mtb infection, especially later in life. In many countries with high and rising TB incidence rates - BCG has failed to control the epidemic. Vaccine manufacturers and academic groups are currently investigating new TB vaccines which could either replace BCG or boost its effect. The most advanced candidates in development are Oxford University (OU/Aeras) MVA85A and M72 + AS01E (GSK Biologicals).

This MarketVIEW product is a comprehensive value ($ 000s) and volume (doses) forecast indicating the commercial potential of tuberculosis vaccines across endemic countries to 2035 in all target population segments. The model explores the value of TB vaccination in high and low/falling burden countries and explores both infant, catch-up, adolescent and adult use of differing new TB vaccine profiles. In an accompanying Executive presentation, discussion is included with regard to current competitor approaches, target product profile (TPP) analysis and other major commercial assumptions e.g. pricing, boosting and market dynamics. Early indications of expected revenues per competitor are also indicated.


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