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MarketVIEW: Dengue vaccines (endemic)

Updated: June 2018

Dengue Fever (DF) is a mosquito-borne disease (Aedes) caused by single strand RNA viruses of the family flaviviridae. Two fifths of the world's population are thought to be at risk from DF, mainly urban dwellers in tropical and sub-tropical countries. The disease has a wide spectrum of symptoms ranging from a mild febrile illness to severe outcomes such as hospitalization and death as observed in dengue haemorrhagic fever (DHF) and dengue shock syndrome (DSS). Importantly, of the 22,000 estimated deaths per year, the large majority are in children (< 15yrs). No specific treatment is available.

A Sanofi Pasteur vaccine (CYD-TDV, Dengvaxia) has been licensed since 2015 for the prevention of disease caused by all four dengue virus serotypes in preadolescents, adolescents and adults, 9 to 45 years of age living in endemic areas. In April 2016, the WHO SAGE committee recommended countries consider introduction of CYD-TDV only in geographic settings (national or subnational) with high endemicity, as indicated by seroprevalence of approximately 70% or greater. Two countries: Brazil (Parana state) and the Philippines started mass immunization programs, albeit with some controversy. Dengvaxia now has label restrictions regarding use in those without prior infection (WHO SAGE, April 2018). Other dengue vaccines notably, DenVAX (Takeda Vaccines) and TetraVAX (NIAID, Butantan) are in late stage development.

This MarketVIEW product consists of a detailed Executive presentation (135 slides + 30 slides addendum) and three comprehensive MS-Excel work books (3 x 110 worksheets) which forecast the potential commercial value of dengue fever vaccine(s) by competitor across 32 endemic markets to 2030. The model(s) contain value ($ m) and volume (mio doses) predictions (public and private sector) in relevant age segments e.g. 9 yrs, 15-27/44 yrs. LO, BASE and HI forecast scenarios include expected demand from selected country catch-up campaigns and expected approvals from 2020 onwards. A intra state or region roll-out analysis is also included for Brazil and Philippines. Competitor vaccines are described in some detail with launch, market share and pricing predictions. A global review of latest disease dynamics and epidemiology is also presented.


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