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MarketVIEW: Seasonal influenza vaccines

January 2021

Annual seasonal influenza epidemics typically affect 5-15% of the population with mainly upper respiratory tract infections. On a global basis around 3-5 million cases of severe illness are estimated each year with an associated 290,000 - 650,000 deaths (WHO figures). Annual influenza vaccination is the most effective method for preventing influenza virus infection and its complications, now more so during the COVID-19 pandemic. Recommended groups for influenza vaccination are usually those most vulnerable and include the elderly, very young and those with underlying chronic diseases. In the US, influenza vaccination recommendations now include every person >6 mos. Globally, many influenza vaccines are still of the trivalent inactivated format (TIV) although now the US market has 99% switched to Quadrivalent (QIV) vaccines and high dose (HD), cell and adjuvanted formats.

This MarketVIEW product is a comprehensive MS Excel-based model + summary presentation (.pdf) which forecasts the potential commercial volume and value of seasonal influenza vaccines across 13 major individual Western and 37 emerging or rest of world (ROW) markets to 2035. The model contains validated volume (mio doses) estimates for all recommended target groups per country based on a thorough investigation of national recommendations and policy and detailed country-specific vaccine coverage rates. Country market values are ascertained by a pricing methodology based upon public/private sector prices for TIVs, QIVs, high dose (HD), LAIV and other forms where the impact of discounting is explored. The analysis contains a detailed US forecast by product type and individual competitor including Seqirus' QIV (Flucelvax), MF-59 adjuvanted FLUAD and the Sanofi HD (now QIV) portfolio (Fluzone + Flublok). An updated methodology is introduced to estimate the adoption of QIV products outside of the key US market looking at >10 ROW suppliers and EU potential for new Sanofi differentiated products Supemtek and Efluelda entering the European market to challenge Seqirus An updated analysis of the UK expanded program is included with a brand new demand by vaccine type analysis across the EU28 region. Key late stage R&D programs are also assessed for market entry along with the new mRNA threat (ModernaTX mRNA-1010, 1020, 1030) that has clear implications for future product strategy. MarketVIEW: Seasonal influenza vaccines is the ultimate up-to-date guide for this significant vaccine marketplace.


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