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MarketVIEW: Seasonal influenza vaccines

Updated: October 2018

Annual seasonal influenza epidemics typically affect 5-15% of the population with mainly upper respiratory tract infections. On a global basis around 3-5 million cases of severe illness are estimated each year with an associated 250,000 - 650,000 deaths (WHO figures). Annual influenza vaccination is the most effective method for preventing influenza virus infection and its complications. Recommended groups for influenza vaccination are usually those most vulnerable and include the elderly, very young and those with underlying chronic diseases. In the US, influenza vaccination recommendations now include every person >6 mos. Influenza vaccines are still predominantly of the trivalent inactivated format (TIV) although latest advances include the addition of another B virus strain to form Quadrivalent (QIV) vaccines and high dose formats.

This MarketVIEW product is a comprehensive MS Excel-based model + summary presentation (.pdf) which forecasts the potential commercial volume and value of seasonal influenza vaccines across 13 major individual Western and 21 emerging or �rest of world� markets to 2034. The model contains validated volume (mio doses) estimates for all recommended target groups per country based on a thorough investigation of national recommendations and policy and detailed country-specific vaccine coverage rates. Country market values are ascertained by a pricing methodology based upon public/private sector prices for TIVs, QIVs, high dose (HD), LAIV and other forms where the impact of discounting is explored. The analysis contains a detailed US forecast by product type and individual competitor including Seqirus' new QIV (Flucelvax), MF-59 adjuvanted FLUAD and Sanofi�s HD portfolio (Fluzone + Flublok). An updated methodology is introduced to estimate the adoption of QIV products outside of the key US market looking at 9 ROW suppliers. An updated analysis of the UK childhood program is included with the hypothetical value of further childhood programs also assessed.


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